March 2025

For nearly three decades, the policy of U.S. imperialism towards Russia (which was formed with the collapse of the capitalist state of the Soviet Union in 1991) has been to limit its development and prevent Russia from integrating with Europe.¹ Now, Trump and his senior officials say that this policy was wrong and must be changed. In the course of ending the war in Ukraine, U.S. imperialism is now trying to make Russian imperialism its ally in hegemony over parts of the world, and it intends to do so without the interference of European imperialists and outside of NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization], the pact which for 76 years defined the military-security relations between the U.S., Canada and Western Europe.

In fact, the policy of U.S. imperialism has made a 180-degree turn. When Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, the policy of the U.S. and European countries (in other words, the NATO military alliance) was that the unstinting aid from the U.S. and European countries would flow to Ukraine until Russia was completely and decisively defeated in this war. Ukraine was referred to as a bulwark for the defense of “democracy” against “tyranny.” Now, Trump even claims that Ukraine and its clownish President Zelensky started the war! 

This change has stunned the imperialist powers of Europe—especially because the change in policy toward Russia is also a change in the policy of nearly eight decades of alliance between the U.S. and Europe. When Trump announced 25% tariffs on some European products, CNN wrote that with this policy [shift] “the American Century in Europe is over”! In Brussels, Trump's defense secretary told European leaders that the security of this continent is your responsibility,² despite the fact that the European powers have played a major role in advancing all of America's criminal wars, including its proxy war in Ukraine. For 76 years, [Europe] has participated in NATO under the leadership of the U.S. Together with the U.S. military, they have caused destruction and massacre in several countries (Yugoslavia, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.) over recent decades, and have unhesitatingly assisted Israel in the genocide of the people of Gaza, and the actions of their military forces in Africa have included ethnic cleansing and looting of mines, killing different people, assassinating leaders, coups, etc.³

It is important to note that although the change of this 76-year-old policy has occurred upon the election of Trump as president, it is a policy that a large part of the U.S. imperialist bourgeoisie is behind and is determined to push forward. 

There are many pitfalls confronting the U.S. and the specific policies that Trump represents. Trump says he wants “peace.” But the imperialist capitalist system is driven by deep necessities and is a slave to its “expand or die” logic. This logic pits the powers of imperialist capitalism against each other in hostile rivalry, is the driving force behind their wars of aggression, and has produced the fascist regime that today heads U.S. imperialism and fascist parties that have spread across Europe. For years, this situation within the world capitalist system has evolved relatively slowly. But now it is moving forward in astonishing leaps and jolts.

Thus, the relations between the imperialist powers are like tectonic shifting of the continental plates. What really determines the policy and approach of U.S. imperialism towards various aspects of its international relations is the need to halt the decline of U.S. imperialism, while simultaneously confronting the challenge posed by imperialist capitalist powers like China. Confronted with this situation, Trump's solution is completely different from that of the other section of the U.S. bourgeoisie represented by the Democratic Party. However, their goal is the same: to preserve the U.S. global empire and prevent an internal split within the U.S. that today, in the words of Bob Avakian, is divided into “two countries within this country.” (Bob Avakian, “‘Two Countries’ Within This Country—And The Whole Damn System's Got To Go! This is not a time for demoralization and despair—it is a time for righteous anger and revolutionary determination,” November 7, 2024)

The accelerating decline of U.S. imperialism is a well-known fact, and the possibility that could implode is a matter of concern for America's rivals as well. Even an event that came close to a collapse could cause such a rupture in the entire fabric of the world's imperialist capitalist system that it could spin out of control, presenting opportunities for revolution in places where preparations for revolution are underway—especially in the U.S. itself,  where  Bob Avakian’s analysis is that “this a rare time when revolution becomes possible.” 

The Trump/MAGA regime, in order to consolidate the rule of the bourgeoisie within the U.S, will systematically and comprehensively carry out its crusader-fascist agenda, along with causing widespread impoverishment, anti-immigrant actions, the punishment of women, Blacks, and Latinos, and the suppression of dissent. At the same time, it is determined to reconstitute its alliance with the European imperialist countries on the basis of strengthening similar fascist forces in Europe.

The IRI and Its Disgraceful Claim of “Independence”

This change in policy has shaken the leaders of the IRI, especially [Ayatollah] Khamenei. They know that they are facing a change in policy that goes far beyond ending a war (in Ukraine) and they smell a rat in the deal made by Russia. The first round of talks between the U.S. and Russia, known as the “Riyadh Conference,” was held in Saudi Arabia. The two imperialist powers announced that an important part of their negotiations would be over the political, security, and economic structure of the Middle East, including the fate of the IRI.⁴ At the end of the conference, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said that the third of four points in the talks was: Discussion and consideration of geopolitical and economic cooperation that could result from ending the Ukrainian war. Trump's policy toward the Middle East and Iran is conditioned by his overall foreign policy. In exchange for halting the war in Ukraine and reintegrating its energy pipeline into Europe, Russia must force the IRI to surrender to the U.S. This is how the great game of the imperialist powers is currently unfolding.

The IRI's dependence on various imperialist powers, and on the imperialist capitalist system in general, is clear. Its alleged “independence,” that Khamenei preaches and his [followers] dutifully recite, is nothing more than a sham. Khamenei is deeply concerned that he will be auctioned off by Vladimir Putin in Russia's strategic dealings to the U.S.⁵ For this reason, in his speech on February 18, 2025 (on the resistance of the people of Tabriz against the [Mohammad Reza Pahlavi] Shah's regime),⁶ he quotes Sattar Khan [figure in Iran’s 1905-11 constitutional revolution] as saying that, in the face of pressure from the Tsarist Russian army which demanded that he raise the white flag of surrender, he had responded: “I follow the banner of Aba al-Fadl al-Abbas, I will not come under the banner of anyone else.”⁷

While Russia is not currently at war with the IRI, it plays a major role in the IRI’s international security structures, diplomacy, nuclear technology, and internal repression. One of the intellectual authorities for these theocrats is even a Christian fundamentalist philosopher close to Putin.⁸ To remain a player, the IRI will be forced to take big military and political gambles. With the IRI’s proxy forces destroyed, all that is left is a poverty-stricken and starving country that operates on the use of gallows, and the billions in debt owed to various Chinese and Russian companies and banks that it borrowed to finance the building of nuclear power plants.⁹ The IRI's proxy wars beyond its borders and its so-called nuclear “deterrence” have brought about a generalized poverty and destruction of the land under the domination of gangs of monstrous capitalists.

It does not matter to these criminals that they have pushed 80 percent of the population below the poverty line. They have also used the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European imperialists to add to their billion-dollar fortunes, and they have done so with the help of not only China and Russia, but also the support of Western financial and credit sectors.¹⁰ Just look at the mullahs and the military who live in penthouses, look at the partnership of Iran's Islamist capitalists in Dubai, Qatar, and London. And now look at their 2025 budget that allocated a cool one trillion to 20 religious propaganda institutions and that tripled the military budget. The religious palaces of the mullahs (the shrines to “The Imam, His Holiness” Khomeini, etc.) were built with the blood of the Iranian people. The scum who call themselves “Islamic servants of the Custodian of the Holy Shrine” are building a free trade zone on the backs of the impoverishment of the people of Khorasan.¹¹

For Khamenei, “independence” means [Islamic fundamentalist] “identity”: enslavement of women with veils, obscurantism and the chains of social slavery; the plundering of workers' lives, the destruction of the talents of the youth, the beheading of freedom-fighters. He will not hesitate to do whatever it takes to maintain this miserable “independence,” even if it means turning Iran and the Iranian people into a fortress for Russian and Chinese imperialism—or for U.S. imperialism, if that becomes necessary. 

Over the last eight years, in order to explain the IRI’s dependence on Russia for funds to develop key enterprises, Khamenei has said that his slogan, “neither the West nor the East” no longer applies because “the East” no longer exists. He forecast that the world would become “multi-polar,” and that one of those poles (the imperialists of Russia and China) would willingly embrace the IRI. Certainly, the rifts between the imperialist powers will widen in various ways and new ones will emerge (e.g., [if there is] a direct confrontation between the U.S. and the European Union, and an escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and China), and this would give the IRI the possibility, the opportunity, and the temptation to make more desperate maneuvers. However, the “playing field” is much more slippery now than before. Most importantly, the explosive movements of the people, hungry and disgusted with this regime and its ruling thugs, are severely reducing the regime's capacity for such maneuvers. The regime has even lost its traditional footholds. As one of the regime's critics, Abbas Abdi, said, “There is no longer an element called “the people” in this government. Bringing some people out to its rallies will not solve its problems.”¹²

Let's seize this opportunity to build a completely different future.

The world is at a nodal point. In other words, all the contradictions of the imperialist capitalist system that dominates the world are knotted together and it is not possible to resolve them in a case by case way within the framework of the existing situation. This situation has negatively impacted reactionaries of all countries, including the IRI. In this way, it is diminishing their internal cohesion and ability to control the people. In Iran, the people have repeatedly rebelled against the IRI and have repeatedly been defeated. But they will rebel again, and the waves will be louder than before. However, [these rebellions] have also increased the great opportunities to turn these waves into a tsunami that will bury the IRI and create a completely different society. 

We must recognize that the whole world is passing through a time machine, and in a few years, the world will be astonishingly different from the current world: much worse or much better. If we want the situation to move in a direction that will qualitatively improve the situation for the majority of the people in the world, including Iran, we must make a revolution. The weakening of the IRI is a great opportunity for the growth and expansion of a “movement for revolution” that can both mobilize the people to overthrow the IRI and confront the imperialists' war plans and other maneuvers—and at the same time stand up to the reactionary alternative forces who want to take the place of the IRI. Whatever the outcome, this situation holds great danger along with great opportunities for the expansion and growth of a “movement for revolution.” 

Confronting war and the dangers that threaten the lives and futures of millions of people is one of the tasks of this movement. It is the task of this movement, in addition to weakening the levers of intellectual and organizational control of the reactionaries over the people, to use the space created to consciously mobilize and organize large sections of the people in a movement for revolution. It is the responsibility of this movement to confront not only the IRI but all the alternatives that the imperialists want to impose on us in the guise of a “transition period.” 

At this juncture, we must be able to open a path for the people that is completely different from the detours represented by those who claim to be the “transitional leadership” of the “national revolution” and who are waiting for the imperialist’s military intervention in Iran or for a coup “from within the system.” It is the task of the “movement for revolution” to prevent the explosive strata of society—of women, youth and workers to the people of oppressed nationalities—from taking these detours.

It is a time in which it is possible to prepare the ground for a different future. Let us carry out this preparation with eyes wide open, with knowledge of what is happening and where the interests of our people—and of oppressed humanity in general—lie. At the same time, this preparation requires that we fight for a liberating worldview, free from the ideas and methodology that is produced by the existing order. 

What is meant by “ways of thinking produced by the existing order,” is the method and approach that gets promoted among the people by the IRI and by the capitalist-imperialist system, and political forces affiliated with them. An unscientific method and approach prevents us from seeing the possibility of building a society that is fundamentally different from the one that exists. Therefore, in various ways, we must engage a large number of people in ideological struggle and change their way of thinking, so that they can separate themselves from the empirical, superficial, and determinist ways of thinking, and can look scientifically at the current situation and how it can be changed in the interests of the majority. With a scientific method and approach, we can understand how to proceed step by step along the path of the revolution, and where we can make leaps forward.

For the struggles of this period, we must set goals and form a broad alliance within the framework of opposition to [both] the IRI and imperialism and that take an internationalist approach. There are different fronts to the practical preparations aimed at overthrowing the IRI and the capitalist class—both in and out of power. But these all are based on one set of strategic goals: 

• Release of political prisoners and abolish executions;
• immediate abolition of the hijab law and all religious laws against women;
• complete freedom of expression, publishing and art;
• end the allocation of the people’s wealth to militarism, nuclear industries, bomb-making and proxy wars that has impoverished the people and has eliminated budget for education, health and public services;
• end the funding of religious, ideological and cultural programs by the IRI and its institutions, despite these programs’ reduced effectiveness to fool the people and create a pro-government sentiment, they are kept afloat with large budgets;¹³
• having an internationalist outlook, culture, and practice in the form of clear lines of demarcation against all imperialists and their wars, and specifically by supporting the people of Palestine against Israel's genocidal wars;
• having a line and standards of conduct that don’t tolerate misogynistic, LGBT-phobic, racist, and fascist culture, and that encourages a culture of unity around opposition to any form of oppression and exploitation and that supports rebellion against any crime or oppression, whether “internal” or “external” [to Iran].

To move forward along this different path, we need to create a “movement for revolution” abroad with this same content, among hundreds of thousands of immigrants, students, and refugees from Iran and Afghanistan. We need to forge broad, organized alliances that take part in strengthening the anti-fascist movements in the U.S. and Europe. Synergy at home and abroad will exponentially increase the power and influence of the “movement for revolution.” Having deep-rooted international ties with the struggles of the people of the world will, in practice, broaden the horizons of our people and increase the hope and energy for fundamental change in the world for the benefit of all humanity. We cannot succeed in building a different future just with noble thoughts, good intentions and dedication. We must “organize, organize, organize” around these desires. Intellectuals have an important role to play in teaching people to analyze scientifically, think scientifically, plan scientifically—and to organize!