Much has been made of the way that Trump announces “I think we got a deal” on one day, then reverts to “we’re gonna bomb the hell out of them,” and then bounces back to “I think we got a deal.” As we go to press, Trump continues to both proclaim a coming deal and simultaneously issue even more genocidal threats—this time an actual nuclear threat, posting that if “the deal” doesn’t come off “[W]e have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again!”

Trump may well be a demented lunatic and genocidal maniac, but the back-and-forth around the negotiations is not mainly about Trump’s mental state—it’s about a dilemma that he, and the capitalist-imperialist class that he ultimately represents, face.

Trump Gets More Than He Bargained For

Trump went into Iran hoping for and expecting a replay of Venezuela. That is, he expected to launch a surprise attack, take the leader out of commission, and take over. He also apparently let himself be convinced by the Prime Minister of Israel (Netanyahu) and people in his own cabinet that even if that didn’t work quite so smoothly, the overwhelming air power of the U.S. and Israel combined would quickly crush any resistance on the ground in Iran and then the U.S. could install some willing tool of imperialism.

Four and a half months later, despite the widespread assassinations of Iranian leadership, the savage bombing of essential infrastructure like water purification facilities, and the slaughter of several thousand people, including almost 200 schoolchildren on the first day of the war… breaking the will of the Iranian regime has not proven to be that easy. Iran found ways to inflict damage on the global capitalist-imperialist economic system through blockading the Strait of Hormuz.¹ Iranian armed forces were able to use asymmetric warfare (drones in particular) to inflict damage on U.S. allies in the region. Trump’s threats to bomb Iran into the Stone Age or even to wipe it out entirely—genocidal threats which in and of themselves are war crimes—did not intimidate Iran and served to alienate many around the world and within the U.S. itself, including even some within MAGA. To compound it, every time Trump threatened and then backed off he looked weak and irresolute.

A consensus is emerging among some ruling class figures and military scholars that a decisive American victory in Iran would require U.S. soldiers invading and the likelihood of a very two-sided war on the ground. Such a war could involve big casualties on both sides, with an unpredictable outcome. On top of that, there would be the very real possibility that China—America’s main rival for imperialist domination of the world—could find a way to seize on the U.S. being tied down in Iran to make strategic gains against America in other parts of the world. Trump also campaigned on NOT getting tied down in “forever wars,” and he runs some risk with parts of his “base” if he ends up in one in Iran.

A Rock and a Hard Place

So there are real pressures on Trump to try to settle. If he does, he will no doubt try to spin whatever comes out of negotiations as some great victory. Some might believe that…but it is very hard to win more in negotiations than what you won in the war itself.

Meanwhile, there are significant forces within the fascists, and in the U.S. ruling class more generally who want to intensify the war against Iran, even in the face of the danger of wider, more violent war. And there is a particular compulsion on fascists to never show weakness and never admit defeat. Israel, for its part, has made clear that it will not be bound by any agreement that it judges to be too lenient in regard to Iran developing a nuclear weapon and even as we go to press has attacked Lebanon (much to Trump’s open displeasure). So negotiations could again break down, and the U.S.-Israel axis could again launch military action on an even higher level. Such an action might result in “victory” in some form, but it also carries with it the real possibility of U.S. troops and military capability getting even more tied down and drained, which (again) China—the main rival of the U.S.—could take strategic advantage of. 

And then there is this: an escalated war, no matter how supposedly “calibrated,” could easily spin out of control… especially with a commander-in-chief who has said, in all seriousness, “If we have nukes, why can’t we use them?” this could put all of humanity in an extremely dire fix.

An Existential Question

In this context—where things could get qualitatively more intense very quickly—it is important to not just recall but to popularize this statement from Bob Avakian:

"We, the people of the world, can no longer afford to allow these imperialists to continue to dominate the world and determine the destiny of humanity. They need to be overthrown as quickly as possible. And it is a scientific fact that we do not have to live this way."

By that same token: the entire situation with Iran, with all the explosiveness we have outlined here, concentrates in real time what is so starkly put in the title of Bob Avakian’s new major talk: “HUMANITY ON THE BRINK: A Forced March Into the Abyss, Or Forging a Way Forward Out of the Madness?”… and what is so thoroughly covered and gone into in the talk itself. 

People in this country have a special responsibility to stand up against the crimes of the U.S., and the terror Trump is bringing down on the people of the world. And have a special responsibility to understand why this is happening, the system that's giving rise to this horror, and the very real potential, and urgent need, for a "way forward out of the madness."

Right now: How broadly this talk gets out… how deeply it gets internalized… will do much to determine how the question in its title gets answered.